Weekly Wrap Up – 12 December 2025
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Australia is feeling the distant shockwaves of the Middle East conflict in very immediate ways. What began as a geopolitical crisis is now bleeding into the domestic economy – most visibly through fuel prices, supply concerns, interest rate rises, and a renewed sense of vulnerability about Australia’s energy security.
In regional Australia, those pressures are already being felt. Patchy fuel shortages, empty bowsers, and surging demand have pushed governments across Australia to act. This week, we saw Anthony Albanese convene National Cabinet, bringing together Federal, State, and Territory leaders to coordinate a response. A mix of measures has followed, including the appointment of a national fuel supply coordinator to oversee distribution, enhanced real-time monitoring of fuel stocks, and closer coordination with industry to prioritise deliveries to the most affected regions. The message was clear: while there is no nationwide shortage, the system is under strain.
Despite this, Canberra briefly found a moment of ceremony, hosting King Frederik X and Australian-born Queen Mary. The visit offered a welcome – if fleeting – distraction from mounting cost-of-living pressures. That sense of calm quickly faded, however, as Treasurer Jim Chalmers faced renewed scrutiny following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest interest rate hike. His insistence that Australia can avoid recession has done little to ease public anxiety, with household budgets continuing to tighten.
Amidst this uncertainty, speculation around the Budget continues to gain pace in the background, nudged along by a number of strategic media outings by Chalmers, where he indicated that some form of wider tax reform may be on the horizon. Adjacent to this, Teal independent Allegra Spender also contributed to the heightened speculation by releasing her own sensible blueprint for tax reform.
Australia’s first electoral test for 2026, and indeed since the 2025 Federal Election, is upon us, with South Australians heading to the polls on Saturday. In the 47-seat House of Assembly, Labor currently holds 29 seats, with the Liberal Party holding 13 and four held by crossbench MPs, including three former Liberal MPs who have since left the party. One seat remains vacant. While opinion polls have consistently shown that Labor is well ahead, and Peter Malinauskas is expected to be returned to government – possibly with an expanded majority – the continued rise of One Nation makes the result more interesting. If you are interested in all things South Australian, follow the link to our election preview note here.
All of this sets the stage for a critical fortnight ahead. Parliament returns next week for a two-week sitting period, and pressure on the government will be intense. Albanese and Chalmers will need to show they can manage both the external shock of a potentially prolonged Middle East conflict and the growing domestic risk of a deepening cost-of-living squeeze. For now, the question hanging over Canberra is simple: can the Government stay ahead of a crisis that is no longer just overseas, but edging closer to home?
Stay tuned.
Top talking points
RBA Meeting: Following a meeting of the Monetary Policy Board, the RBA raised the cash rate to 4.1 per cent.
Google Tax Concerns: Google is reportedly withholding a $20 billion investment in an Australian AI and data centre hub, citing tax risks from permanent establishment onshore.
Coalition Shadow Cabinet: The Coalition reshuffled its Shadow Ministry, elevating Matt Canavan, Darren Chester, and Michael McCormack to key frontbench roles.
Farrer By-Election: The Liberal Party preselected Albury City Councillor Raissa Butkowski as the Liberal candidate for the Farrer by-election, Sussan Ley’s former electorate.
South Australian election: The South Australian election will be held on Saturday 21 March, and incumbent Premier Peter Malinauskas is expected to be re-elected.
Making headlines this week
Fuel Security Updates
Australia-European Union Free Trade Agreement Moves
Australia and the European Union are in the final stages of signing the Australia-European Union Free Trade Agreement (AEUFTA). Negotiations for the AEUFTA began in 2018 but stalled in 2023 due to unresolved disputes – particularly over agricultural market access and the European Union’s strict geographical indicators rules. Momentum has since revived, partly in response to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen will visit Australia from 23 March to 25 March, where she is widely expected to sign the AEUFTA. The agreement would give Australian exporters access to a market of 450 million consumers, reduce tariffs, and strengthen economic ties amid rising global trade tensions. However, compromises remain likely – especially for farmers – meaning the outcome may potentially fall short of earlier expectations.
Things to watch
21 March: The South Australian election will be held.
23 March: Federal Parliament will convene.
23 March: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will arrive in Australia.
23 March: Dr Fatih Birol will address the National Press Club, discussing energy security and global energy markets.
24 March: The New South Wales and Queensland Parliaments will sit.
25 March: Tim Ayres will address the National Press Club, discussing R&D and the Future Made in Australia agenda.
25 March: The ABS will release Consumer Price Index data.
26 March: The ABS will release Labour Force data.
Financial Adviser, CGT, and R&D Developments
Daniel Mulino opened consultation on reforms to financial adviser education, proposing more flexible degree pathways while maintaining standards, aiming to boost adviser numbers and improve access to affordable, high-quality financial advice.
The Select Committee on the Operation of the Capital Gains Tax Discount’s final report found the discount favours investors over workers, distorts investment toward housing, contributes to investor ownership, and exacerbates income, wealth, and intergenerational inequality.
An independent panel chaired by Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm released the Strategic Examination of Research and Development report, urging deregulation and stronger investment incentives. The Government is considering its recommendations for future economic growth.
Ministerial and Overseas Visits
Penny Wong and Richard Marles hosted New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins for the annual Australia-New Zealand Foreign Defence Ministerial Consultations in Canberra, addressing regional demands, global challenges, and Alliance strengthening.
Matt Thistlethwaite led the Australia-Southeast Asia Business Exchange mission to the Philippines, meeting with the Secretaries of Education and Technical Education and Skills Development Authority to discuss education collaboration, and with Undersecretaries for Trade and Industry, Foreign Affairs, and ICT to explore trade opportunities.
Tourism ministers from Micronesia, Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, and the Marshall Islands convened in Canberra for the North Pacific Aviation Summit to discuss the North Pacific Connector, a regional flight service addressing regional air connectivity needs.
Indo-Pacific Energy Security, Coal Industry Strategy, and Queensland Floods Updates
Madeleine King attended the Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial and Business Forum in Japan, meeting regional counterparts to discuss energy security, critical minerals cooperation, and Australia’s role in supporting stable supply and domestic gas availability.
The New South Wales Government released the NSW Coal Industry 2026–50 Strategy, introducing a long-term framework to support existing operations, regional employment and energy security, while ruling out new greenfield coal mine applications. Extensions to existing mines may proceed, subject to approvals.
Following recent flooding, the Queensland Government will provide $107 million in recovery funding under the Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements, including infrastructure resilience upgrades, environmental restoration, and expanded support for primary producers, small businesses and not-for-profits.
Triple Zero, Local Government, and Freight Corridor Moves
Anika Wells launched a review of the Triple Zero (000) emergency call system legislative framework to ensure the system remains reliable and resilient for critical services. The Triple Zero Custodian is expected to deliver a final report to the Government by March 2027.
Kristy McBain announced a national forum at the Australian Council of Local Government, scheduled for 22 June 2026, where Federal and Local Government representatives will discuss housing, emergency management, and productivity.
The Australian Rail Track Corporation has reopened the Sydney-to-Perth freight rail corridor after severe flooding caused a temporary disruption to operations.
Unemployment, Older Australians, and Disability Advisory Council Updates
Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3 per cent in February, up from 4.1 per cent in January. Amanda Rishworth noted that Australia’s participation rate is close to its record high.
Sam Rae released a 10-year National Plan to End the Abuse and Mistreatment of Older People. Developed in coordination with State and Territory Governments, the plan will be delivered through two five-year action phases to ensure a consistent approach.
Jenny McAllister announced six new appointments to Australia’s Disability Strategy 2021–2031 Advisory Council. Members include Ebe Ganon and Sara Shams as core representatives, alongside Kelly Brown (ACT), Rachel Watson (Queensland), Chris Symonds (Tasmania), and Ellie Moir (Western Australia).