While most polls show Labor ahead on a two-party preferred basis, the election will possibly be far tighter than either side will admit – with the keys to the Lodge (and Kirribilli) hinging on a handful of key marginal seats. To see where the real battle lines have been drawn across our Great Southern Land, just follow the Leaders: they go where the votes are.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese started the week with a blitz through NSW, hitting the marginal seats of Robertson, Banks, Bennelong, and Fowler. He then turned his focus to Brisbane, targeting key electorates like Bonner and Moreton. In a bold move, Albanese campaigned in the marginal seat of Dickson, held by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, cranking up the pressure on his opponent. After a National Press Club address in Canberra, Albanese flew to Adelaide to campaign in the marginal electorates of Boothby and Sturt. His final stop? Perth, where he set his sights on the crucial Western Australian electorates of Tangney and Bullwinkel.
Peter Dutton wasted no time diving straight into intense campaigning. Dutton hit key battlegrounds, including Labor-held marginals including Paterson, Robertson, Shortland, and Gilmore. Dutton then shifted gears to challenge the Teal seat of Mackellar before heading to Melbourne. There, he targeted the electorates of McEwen, Kooyong, Chisholm, and Aston. Dutton then continued his campaign blitz in the Adelaide seat of Sturt before jetting off to shore up his own seat of Dickson in Brisbane.
With so much in play, this election night promises high drama and even higher stakes. Will Albanese cling on to his razor-thin majority or be forced into negotiations with the crossbench? Or is an upset victory on the cards, can Dutton defy the odds and deliver a Morrison-style election miracle?
From us at GRACosway, happy voting and stay tuned.
Top talking points
- Polling updates: Newspoll[paywall] and Resolve[paywall] see Labor leading the Coalition 52-48 and 53-47 respectively on a two-party preferred basis, with Newspoll predicting that a hung parliament or slim majority for Labor are the most likely outcomes.
- National Press Club Address: Anthony Albanese addressed the National Press Club.
- Election Costings: Both Labor and the Coalition have unveiled their election policy costings.
- Credit Ratings: Credit ratings agency S&P Global has warned[paywall] that Australia’s AAA credit rating is at risk due to election funding commitments.
- US tariff negotiations: US President Donald Trump acknowledged Australia’s outreach on trade and signalled plans to speak with Prime Minister Albanese about the issue.
Making headlines this week
Campaign controversies
In the final week of the campaign trail, there have been a number of controversies. Minister for Housing Clare O’Neil is under scrutiny after it was revealed[paywall] that ten individuals associated with a group linked to Beijing’s influence operations agency were being recruited to staff her polling booths on election day. In the electorate of Fowler, tensions[paywall] are high as both candidates come under fire.
Independent incumbent Dai Le is under scrutiny for accepting support from Liberal volunteers distributing her how-to-vote cards, while Labor challenger Tu Le is facing corruption allegations following revelations that government grants were awarded to a local community group she co-founded.
Early voting numbers
Despite public holidays reducing the number of voting days by two last week, 7,202,100 Australian voters have opted to vote early ahead of the 2025 Federal Election. Making up almost 40 per cent of the voting population, this is a dramatic increase from the previous 2019 and 2022 Federal Elections. The question remains, what does all this early voting mean for the much loved democracy sausage in the future?
Things to watch
- Media blackout: A media blackout will take place ahead of the 2025 Federal Election.
- Election day: The 2025 Federal Election will be held on 3 May 2025.
- Key seats: From us at GRACosway, 12 seats to watch on election night include Bennelong (NSW), Gilmore (NSW), Fowler (NSW), Cowper (NSW), Deakin (VIC), Menzies (VIC), Kooyong (VIC), Wannon (VIC), Aston (VIC), Leichhardt (QLD), Dickson (QLD), and Sturt (SA).
ACCC updates and budgetary savings
The ACCC encouraged businesses to review their card payment surcharges to ensure they are in line with consumer law. It also urged businesses to provide clear and upfront information about any additional charges to avoid misleading consumers.
As part of Labor’s released election costings, Minister for Finance Katy Gallagher promised $6.4 billion in savings through reducing the Federal Government’s use of consultants and labour hire firms. Elsewhere, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton confirmed plans to cut 41,000 public service jobs, with exemptions for frontline services and national security.
Pacific region commitments and tourism
Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs David Coleman announced that a Dutton-led Coalition Government will increase the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific’s loan ceiling to $6 billion. The measure aims to support infrastructure development in the region.
Elsewhere, the Australian Defence Force’s Pacific Support Vessel Reliant departed from Darwin for a three-month humanitarian and maritime support campaign around the region. The trip is expected to include assistance with disaster relief in Fiji, support for Tonga in upcoming defence exercises, and deliveries of military equipment from the Pacific Maritime Security Program.
Lastly, Tourism Australia’s 2025 Australian Tourism Exchange began at the Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre. Approximately 1,600 Australian sellers and 700 international buyers are expected to take part in a four-day conference to bolster international travel and tourism industry connections.
Critical minerals, energy modelling and state developments
On the campaign trail, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that if re-elected, an Albanese government would create a $1.2 billion Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve. The Strategic Reserve would establish two mechanisms: national offtake agreements and selective stockpiling.
Elsewhere, the Clean Energy Council released modelling indicating that Australia could miss out on $58 billion of new private investment into clean energy should the Coalition cap renewable energy at 54 per cent. Modelling found that nearly 29 GW of new investment would be foregone under the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan.
In state energy policy, the WA Government announced the installation of all 640 batteries at the Collie Battery Energy Storage System. The 500MW facility provides 2,000MWh of energy storage capacity, enough to power approximately 785,000 homes. Meanwhile, the NSW Government confirmed that the Mount Kembla Mining Disaster site will be added to the State Heritage Register in recognition of its significance in the state’s coal mining history and its role as a place of remembrance.
Road state and Queensland Productivity Commission updates
Ahead of the 2025 Federal Election, the Australian Automobile Association (AAA) has called on all political parties to invest in safety ratings for roads across Australia. Although all Australian Governments committed to halving road deaths by 2030, there has been a 17 per cent increase in road deaths since 2021.
In state infrastructure policy, Queensland Treasurer David Janetzki released the Terms of Reference for the Queensland Productivity Commission’s inquiry into improving productivity in Queensland’s building and construction sector. This follows the Queensland Government’s pausing of Best Practice Industry Conditions (BPICs) for government-funded infrastructure and construction projects in Queensland.
Charity funding commitments and Queensland’s Health Rescue Plan
In health, Minister for Health Mark Butler pledged $11.3 million to Movember while Shadow Minister for Health Anne Ruston committed funding to support Movember’s training for primary health workers. Elsewhere, Minister Butler also committed $4.5 million to scale-up the operations of FightMND, a charity dedicated to funding research for a motor neurone disease (MND) cure.
In state health policy, Queensland Minister for Health and Ambulance Services announced the Queensland Government’s Health Rescue Plan. This will see the Queensland Government deliver 2,600 new hospital beds across Queensland, construct three new hospitals, deliver 10 major hospital expansions, and deliver a new Queensland Cancer Centre.
In case you missed it...
📺 A tough question Dutton struggled to answer.