In a stunning reversal of fortune after almost two years trailing or tied with the Coalition in the polls, the Australian Labor Party – led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese – has secured a second term of government following an emphatic landslide victory. At the time of writing, the Labor Party has secured 85 seats, more than enough to form a majority government. This historic result will make Albanese the first Prime Minister to be re-elected to a consecutive term since John Howard at the 2004 Federal Election.
Following the defeat of the Voice Referendum and the historic increase in interest rates, the Labor Party has consistently trailed in the polls, leading many to believe that Anthony Albanese could have been the first Prime Minister to lead his party to a first term defeat since James Scullin in 1932. However, in an extraordinary turnaround, the Labor Party has instead secured more seats than at any point in its history.
While the reason for the result is likely multifaceted, it is clear that the election was defined by cost of living pressures, overshadowed by global uncertainty and President Donald Trump, and entrenched by the policy missteps made by the Coalition and its leaders in contrast to a well-executed Labor campaign. The size of the loss is seen as a repudiation of the policy and political priorities of Peter Dutton and the Liberal Party and a disconnection with the issues impacting voters in urban seats across Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth.
On Insiders, Treasurer Jim Chalmers this morning said, “one of the reasons we gained such a big majority last night is that people recognised that if they wanted stability when the global economy was going crazy, then a majority Labor government was the best way to deliver that.” In regard to economic priorities, he added, “in the first term we focused on inflation with an eye on productivity, in the second term we will be focusing on productivity with an eye on inflation”.
Mr Albanese will now turn his mind back to the business of governing, with near term priorities including the appointment of his cabinet and ministry, responding to the recent tariffs imposed on Australia in the midst of the election, and fulfilling the great many commitments made during the campaign.
Top talking points
- The Australian Labor Party – led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese – will form government in a majority.
- Labor has secured at least 85 seats compared to the Coalition’s 37, with 71 per cent of votes counted.
- Peter Dutton has lost his seat of Dickson, with Angus Taylor, Sussan Ley, Dan Tehan, and Andrew Hastie considered frontrunners for the Liberal leadership.
- The Greens are expected to go backwards in Queensland and are on the ropes in Melbourne and Wills. However, Labor and the Greens could gain the balance of power in the Senate.
- Most ‘teal independents’ are expected to retain their seats in the House of Representatives.
The results so far
The Australian Labor Party has won its second term in a landslide, with current estimates showing Labor has secured at least 85 seats to the Coalition’s 37, with 71 per cent of votes counted. As such, Labor has secured the necessary seats to form a majority government, with 76 seats needed. At least 10 crossbenchers have secured seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, while a further 18 seats remain in doubt. The results for the Senate will likely take weeks to resolve. However it is believed that Labor and the Greens will gain additional seats in the upper house.
The Labor Party has secured over 55 per cent of the two party preferred vote with a swing of 3 per cent towards it nationally. This has resulted in gains for the party in Tasmania, Queensland, and in key marginal electorates in South Australia and Western Sydney. However, Labor has gone backwards in Western Australia following an extremely high vote in 2022. Labor is also on the ropes in the ACT seat of Bean following a challenge from independent candidate Jessie Price.
Greens Leader Adam Bandt’s ambitions to gain five additional seats appear to be quashed. The Greens will likely go backwards in Queensland, losing both Brisbane and Griffith but retaining Ryan. Additionally, Bandt’s seat of Melbourne and the neighbouring electorate of Wills both remain in doubt with a result not likely for some time.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese began his victory speech by acknowledging the traditional owners and vowing to advance reconciliation for First Nations people, stating: “We will be a stronger nation when we Close the Gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.”
Mr Albanese also thanked voters for the “extraordinary honour” of being re-elected with an increased majority. During his speech, Mr Albanese outlined that “the Australian people have voted for Australian values: for fairness, aspiration and opportunity for all; for the strength to show courage in adversity and kindness to those in need,”.
Liberal Leader Peter Dutton, who also lost his seat on election night, conceded defeat shortly after 9.30pm on Saturday. Speaking to supporters in Brisbane, Mr Dutton accepted responsibility for the loss and thanked his colleagues for their support. Dutton stated, “We have been defined by our opponents in this election which is not a true story of who we are, but we will rebuild from here and we will do that because we know our values, we know our beliefs, and we will always stick to them.”
Key election commitments
Health
- Medicare Expansion: $8.5 billion to increase bulk billing rates to 90% by 2030, tripling incentives for doctors to provide free GP visits.
- Mental Health Services: $1 billion to expand free mental health services, including support for parents and young Australians.
- Urgent Care Clinics: $644 million commitment to deliver 50 free Medicare Urgent Care Clinics across Australia.
- 1800Medicare: $204.5 million allocated to deliver a nationwide 24/7 health advice line.
Education
- Public School funding: $4 billion commitment over four years to ensure all public schools reach the school resourcing standard.
- Free TAFE courses: Expansion of the Free TAFE program to cover high-demand industries such as healthcare, technology, and renewable energy.
- HECS debt relief: $16 billion pledge to reduce Australian student loans by 20 per cent.
Housing
- First-Home Buyer Support: Initiatives to assist first-home buyers, including a 5 per cent deposit loan guarantee and a pledge to construct and reserve 100,000 homes for first-time buyers.
- Housing Australia Future Fund: $10 billion investment to construct 30,000 affordable homes within five years.
- Support for Tradies: $78 million committed to fast-track the qualification of 6,000 tradies through the Advanced Entry Trades Training program to support housing construction in Australia.
Miscellaneous
- Infrastructure commitments: $3.3 billion in funding to support Victoria’s Suburban Rail Loop and $1 billion allocated to extend the Sydney Metro.
- Supermarket price gouging: Commitment to establish an ACCC taskforce to investigate price gouging practices in the Australian supermarket sector.
- Battery subsidies: $2.3 billion to subsidise household batteries to support the transition to clean energy.
- Unrealised Capital Gains Tax: Proposal to tax the unrealised capital gains of superannuation assets, potentially impacting over 500,000 superannuants.
- Critical Minerals Reserve: Commitment to establish a national reserve for critical minerals to secure supplies amid global trade challenges.
What happens next?
There is unlikely to be significant movement in the figures at this stage as the AEC will mainly focus on sorting and transporting ballots for fresh counts. Additionally, votes cast away from a person’s home division need to be transported in order to be entered into the count.
Senate results can only be calculated and declared after the process of scanning and verifying ballot papers is completed. This will take a number of weeks to occur as Senate ballot papers contain hundreds of millions of preferences.
The Liberal Party will now consider a new leader. After Mr Dutton’s loss in his seat of Dickson, Angus Taylor, Sussan Ley, Dan Tehan, and Andrew Hastie are considered frontrunners for the Liberal leadership.
Seats in doubt
In case you missed it...
📺 Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s victory speech.