Weekly Wrap Up – 12 December 2025

At year’s end, GRACosway typically reflects on the key events that have shaped Australia’s political landscape. However, the nature of this year’s reflection has fundamentally changed following the tragic attack in Sydney this past Sunday. Our thoughts are with all those affected by these events, particularly Sydney’s Jewish community.

The events of the past week have prompted a rapid shift in the policy agenda. As it stands, Australia’s First Ministers have agreed to further strengthen the nation’s gun laws. In New South Wales, Premier Chris Minns has recalled Parliament to legislate these changes immediately, while also considering new measures to restrict protests.

At the federal level, the Government has unveiled a reform package designed to address social cohesion and security, including increased criminal penalties for those found to be spreading hate and division and new powers for the Government to cancel or reject visas for individuals who spread hate and division. Additionally, David Gonski will lead a task force to ensure the education system is equipped to respond to antisemitism.

While the Opposition has called for Parliament to be recalled immediately to pass these measures, the Government has indicated it will not do so before Christmas, as the legislation is not ready. However, the Prime Minister remains open to a recall of Parliament once the legislation is finalised.

It is clear that this week’s events will shape public debate not only in the months ahead but across the remainder of the current term. Leaders at all levels of Australian society are now confronting a concerning rise in antisemitism. While the Special Envoy to Combat Antisemitism has laid important groundwork, the focus for 2026 will shift toward the full implementation of their recommendations across federal, state, and local jurisdictions.

Beyond social cohesion, we expect a renewed debate regarding whether Australia’s strict gun laws remain fit-for-purpose. Additionally, the Prime Minister has identified challenges within the intelligence community which may prompt a review of domestic surveillance and monitoring.

We will continue to keep you informed of these and other developments throughout 2026 and beyond. In the meantime, we wish you a Merry Christmas and a safe and happy New Year.

Heading into 2025, the Albanese Government was on the nose, the Dutton-led Coalition was gaining momentum, the impending threat of Trump 2.0 was ripe, and inflation and interest rates were high. As 2025 ends, Labor faces significant challenges but remains well ahead in the polls. The Trump administration is proving problematic for many countries, but at least he likes us, and, well, inflation and interest rates are still higher than we’d like.

As the year kicked off, the odds favoured a tight election, with a decent possibility for either the Greens or Teals to hold the balance of power. However, this was not to be the case, with Anthony Albanese leading Labor to a landslide victory. Additionally, Peter Dutton and Adam Bandt both lost their seats. Labor’s win was the result of calculated campaigning on public concerns over healthcare, cost of living, climate change, and Donald Trump. Additionally, the Labor machine’s strategic ground game saw high-profile visits to contested electorates and carefully staged policy announcements.

Looking to 2026, Labor confronts mounting economic and policy pressures. The Budget faces growing strain from the NDIS, Medicare and aged care, requiring difficult decisions on how to balance social commitments with fiscal sustainability. Tough choices loom, including whether to trim the diesel fuel tax credits or accept the mounting strain on public finances. The Future Made in Australia agenda is likely to attract scrutiny amid rising energy prices, weak manufacturing competitiveness, and growing expectations for taxpayer-funded support. Even with a historic critical minerals agreement with the US, Australia’s regulatory, tax and energy settings make global competitiveness uncertain.

The Opposition, meanwhile, had a terrible year. Tensions between the Liberals and Nationals continue, leadership speculation around Sussan Ley persists, and internal divides hinder the party’s ability to present a coherent alternative. While Budget Estimates delivered some momentum through targeted scrutiny of Anika Wells’ travel expenses, these moments are limited. A functional Opposition is essential in a Westminster system, particularly as Australia faces rising energy costs, industrial uncertainty and social pressures.

The Prime Minister now holds a clear but modest mandate. Converting electoral success into effective governance will require navigating complex fiscal, industrial, and social challenges. Labor’s next decisions on social cohesion, the NDIS, energy policy and competitiveness will determine whether its historic victory delivers lasting reform or proves short-lived.