April 11, 2025
Weekly Wrap Up

The 2025 Federal Election campaign maybe in full swing but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton’s respective campaigns have become something of a domestic distraction compared with the seismic events that has its origins at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC – that is, the White House for those unfamiliar with DC geography. 

Just a week on from US President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs announced in the Rose Garden at the White House on 2 April 2025, the world’s largest importer and largest exporter of goods (the US and China) are in a geo-political “who will blink first” stand-off over tariffs. Following China’s levying of a 34 per cent reciprocal tariff, the US has since responded in kind, imposing a 104 per cent tariff on Chinese imports into the US. In response, China increased its reciprocal tariff from 34 to 84 per cent. The US has since responded in kind, increasing its reciprocal tariff on China from 104 to 145 per cent. Factory shipments are already grinding to a halt out of China, and elsewhere in Asia for that matter, and inventory of fashion garments to tech products and everything in between will be piling up. 

Escalating trade tensions are roiling global financial markets and with-it Australians’ superannuation balances. This week alone we saw the US’s S&P 500 decline approximately 14 per cent from its year-to-date high. Globally stock markets are swinging wildly but it is the US bond market that is the real canary in the coalmine – and the rapid plunge in bond prices, meaning rising interest rates – is according to most observers, the reason why President Trump watered down the initial shock and awe tariff announcements to a blanket 10 per cent for most countries. The US bond market is normally where investors go for a safe haven in times of crisis – but given the erratic nature of the last week, is it any surprise that bond market started falling? A bond in essence is an article of faith and trust, and confidence in the US has been hit hard given the events of the last week. 

Did we mention the election? While health and infrastructure announcements by both Labor and the Coalition have dominated the campaign trail so far, expect to see both Leaders attempt to bolster their respective economic credentials to the electorate ahead of election day. It will dominate the narrative.

Top talking points

📊Redbridge Polling: Labor leads the Coalition 52-48 on a two-party preferred basis, with Anthony Albanese maintaining a lead over Peter Dutton as the preferred prime minister.

📺Leaders Debate: Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton went head-to-head[Video]
in their first official debate, setting the tone for the weeks ahead.

📑Campaign Policy Debates: Jim Chalmers and Angus Taylor took part in a Treasurer’s debate[Video], while Chris Bowen and Ted O’Brien outlined[Video]
opposing stances on climate and energy policy.

Port of Darwin: Both major parties announced plans to secure an Australian Government-approved operator for the Port of Darwin, signalling a rare moment of bipartisan alignment on national security.

🔄Coalition Policy Reversals: Peter Dutton reversed[Paywall] the Coalition’s work from home policy following a negative response from women voters.

Making headlines this week

US-China trade tensions escalate

The ongoing US-China trade dispute intensified this week following the implementation of US President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. In response to China’s imposition of a 34 per cent tariff on US imports, the US Administration escalated its position on 8 April, enacting a 104 per cent tariff on Chinese goods.

China swiftly countered, raising its reciprocal tariff on US imports from 34 to 84 per cent, effective from 10 April. While President Trump has since announced[Paywall] a
90-day suspension on reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners, with the notable exception of China, the US has increased its tariff on Chinese imports to 145 per cent.

Treasurer convenes emergency economic talks

In light of the growing volatility in global financial markets triggered by the escalating US-China trade dispute, Treasurer Jim Chalmers held[Paywall] an emergency meeting of the Council of Financial Regulators (CFR) on Wednesday. The meeting brought together key financial leaders, including RBA Governor Michele Bullock, Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy, ACCC Chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb, ASIC Chair Joe Longo and APRA Chair John Lonsdale. 

This followed a roundtable discussion on Tuesday between the Treasurer and the heads of Australia’s major financial institutions. Participants included CBA CEO Matt Comyn, NAB CEO Andrew Irvine, Macquarie Group Managing Director Shemara Wikramanayake, ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott, and Super Members Council of Australia CEO Misha Schubert.

Things to watch

📺 ABC Leaders’ Debate: Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton will face off again
next Wednesday in a televised debate on the ABC. 

🏠 National Press Club Housing Debate: Clare O’Neil and Michael Sukkar will outline their housing policy platforms in a debate hosted by the National Press Club, also next Wednesday.

Cyber breaches and housing policy shifts

In the wake of last weekend’s cyberattacks targeting the superannuation sector, the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia confirmed attempted
breaches across several funds. While some member accounts were impacted,
enhanced cybersecurity measures are now being coordinated across the industry.

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, the Greens have proposed reforms to property investor tax breaks, limiting negative gearing and capital gains concessions to just one investment
property per investor. The policy is pitched as a step towards easing housing
pressures and supporting renters and first-home buyers.

Tariffs, trade talks and regional aid

In response to new tariffs imposed on Australian goods by the Trump Administration, Trade Minister Don Farrell has reopened[Paywall] dialogue with his European Union counterpart Maros Sefcovic, to revive negotiations on an Australia-EU Free Trade Agreement. The Minister confirmed that talks would continue following the 2025 Federal Election, should the Albanese Government be re-elected. 

Elsewhere, Minister for International Development and the Pacific Pat Conroy announced the deployment of an Australian Medical Assistance Team and a Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade response team to Myanmar, following last month’s earthquake in the region. The teams will provide emergency medical support and help coordinate humanitarian assistance for affected communities.

Energy pricing, project oversight and regional support

Frontier Economics has released modelling on the Coalition’s gas policy, forecasting a potential 15 per cent reduction in retail gas bills for industrial users and a 7 per cent drop for residential customers. The modelling prompted a response from Australian Energy Producers, who cautioned that the policy could lead to price controls in the east coast gas market.

At the state level, the Queensland Government announced it would leverage the Queensland Investment Corporation to deliver the CopperString Project, aiming to avoid further cost blowouts. The announcement follows confirmation that the project’s cost has risen to $14 billion, significantly above the original $12 billion estimate provided by the former government. The government also revealed plans to develop a comprehensive Energy Roadmap, expected by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, in South Australia, the state government committed $55 million in drought relief for farmers and regional communities. The funding package includes support for local sport and recreation clubs and programs through the Future Drought Fund.

Future funds, fast-tracked housing and feedback on speeds

The Coalition pledged $20 billion towards regional health care, child care, and infrastructure, proposing the creation of two new funds: the Regional Australia Future Fund and the Future Generations Fund.

Following the release of the Brisbane 2032 Delivery Plan, Construction Skills Queensland published a workforce report forecasting growth in the state’s construction sector from $53 billion to $77 billion by the end of 2027. Meanwhile, the Queensland Government announced that $1 billion from the Residential Activation Fund will be reallocated to accelerate housing development outside Southeast Queensland.

The Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts released a consultation paper on provider-regulated broadband speeds. Submissions are open until 18 May.

Hospital investment, student caps and industrial action

The Albanese Government has committed $120 million to establish birthing services at Rouse Hill Hospital, including new birthing rooms, a maternity inpatient unit and expanded staffing areas. The announcement was delivered alongside a keynote address at the AFR Healthcare Summit, which included criticism of private health insurers and the impact of US-imposed tariffs.

Meanwhile, the Coalition released details of its proposed cap on international student numbers, limiting entry to 240,000 students each per year and imposing a 25 per cent cap on international enrolments at public universities.

In New South Wales, the state government condemned strike action by the Australian Salaried Medical Officers’ Federation, stating it breached orders issued by the NSW Industrial Relations Commission.

In case you missed it...

📺 Awkward moment on the trail, Peter Dutton collides with cameraman:

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