VIC Election 2022: An historic victory for Labor
Issue 5, 28 November 2022
Premier Daniel Andrews has been re-elected for a third term at the Victorian State Election, after Labor secured approximately 54 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, winning at least 51 out of 88 seats. The Coalition has won at least 25 seats (16 Liberal and nine National), while the Greens secured four seats, with seven seats remaining too close to call. The electorate of Narracan will have a special election at a date to be confirmed, after the election was declared ‘failed’ last week due to the death of a candidate.
Polling in the leadup to election day signalled that Labor would suffer swings against it, however, would be returned to Government. It appears that Labor outperformed the published polling, but this may shift as more postal votes are counted. Also of note this election was the high rate of early voting, with 1,908,417 people casting their votes early and 272,796 returning postal votes thus far, out of nearly 4.4 million constituents.
At the time of writing, seven seats have changed hands at this election. Labor has retained Bayswater following a hostile redistribution and gained Glen Waverley from the Liberal Party. The Liberals have gained the seat of Nepean from Labor and the Nationals have gained three seats from independents – Morwell, Shepparton and Mildura. The Greens have gained the inner-east seat of Richmond from Labor.
Regarding the seven seats remaining in doubt, the Liberal Party is currently leading against ‘Teal independents’ in Hawthorn and Mornington, with Labor leading against the Liberals in Bass, Hastings, and Pakenham, as well as against the Greens in Northcote and Preston. However, some or all of these leads are likely to change as postal votes continue to be counted.
A reshuffle of Cabinet positions is required following the late resignation of Resources Minister Jaala Pulford in October, and may occur later this week. In addition, Machinery of Government changes, where departmental responsibilities are shifted, could also occur.
The Liberals’ Matthew Guy confirmed that he would be stepping down as Party Leader once the party room is formed. The Nationals’ Peter Walsh confirmed that he wished to continue as Party Leader, but this will need to be confirmed by the Nationals’ party room in the coming weeks. Legislative Council results are not expected until mid-December.
This is the final issue of our Victorian Election 2022 newsletter series, featuring analysis of campaign activities, policy announcements, polling and other political developments. View previous issues here. For more information about the Election results, or to enquire about our services in Victoria, please contact a senior member of our team on the details below or our Melbourne office at [email protected] or 03 9660 1400.
Richard King, Managing Partner – Public Affairs
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