The Queensland election has officially begun in earnest with today marking the beginning of the caretaker period in the sunshine state. 

Undertaking his final official duty for this term of parliament, Premier Steven Miles who is seeking a fourth term for the ALP, travelled via train and then bus to finally climb the steep hills of Paddington to Queensland Government House triggering the dissolution of parliament and the final sprint to polling day, Saturday 26 October. 

In an attempt to highlight the 50 cent public transport fares, the Premier’s climb from the bus stop was perhaps instead symbolic of the uphill battle facing the ALP Government this election – according to the polling to date. 

Successive polling, including the most recent Freshwater Polls released yesterday, have predicted a majority LNP Government, with key wins in regional areas coupled with the threat of the Greens vote in inner city Brisbane seats (further details below).  

Despite these positive figures for the LNP camp, Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has long attempted to paint himself as the underdog, on record repeating the fact that the LNP has won just one of the last 12 general elections in Queensland.  

While that may be the case, during the last Federal Labor Government under former Prime Minister Julia Gillard, the state saw historic swings towards the LNP. A fact Crisafulli should know all too well, as one of the 78 LNP MPs elected to a parliament of 89 seats in the 2012 election led by former Premier Campbell Newman – this was a record 44 seat two party swing. 

In order to control Queensland’s unicameral parliament, the LNP will be required to secure an additional 12 seats – this is a swing of 5.9 per cent. To hold Government, the ALP will need to avoid a loss of four or more seats, a tough call with at least four seats sitting holding a 2.5 per cent margin or less.  

Political Landscape

Moving into serious campaign season, both parties have taken very different approaches to how they have presented and positioned themselves but have left little room for separation when it comes to a number of key policies.  

For the ALP, Premier Steven Miles is seeking to frame his team as the major party ‘with a plan’ and as one that is ready to make the tough decisions for Queensland and wrestle with industry on behalf of punters. Whether that be through placing additional taxes on coal mining, to provide energy rebates, or cheaper fares. Regularly using the tagline ‘Miles, doing what Matters,’ the focus has really been on the ethics and ‘either or’ factor of each policy. It’s worth noting that Miles is still being dubbed the ‘new premier’ in some party advertising, despite coming to the role in December last year, in a move to distance his approach from that of former Premier Palaszczuk. 

For the LNP Opposition, the approach has all been about maintaining a small target approach and continuing to push on the pressure points of the population. Crisafulli, a former TV journalist prior to his political career has been successful in keeping on message framing the discussion on just four issues – cost of living, safety, health, and housing. Outside of these pillars, announcements remain sparse, with Crisafulli most recently receiving pressure in the media to reveal his tax plan. Finding a natural home in the debate on crime has resonated especially in key ‘must win’ seats in the north of Queensland. 

Both major parties publicly committed to the spending outlined in the 2024-2025 Budget, the continuation of 50 cent fares, net zero targets for 2050 and the continuation of increased coal royalty rates until at least 2027. 

While Queensland doesn’t currently face the challenge of Teal Independents like the Federal Parliament, other minor parties are also closing in on the Labor Government. Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) are currently the largest minor party in the state, holding four seats in parliament after One Nation MP Stephen Andrew, the member for Mirani, left the party to join the KAP last month. Queensland’s crossbench also consists of one Independent – Sandy Bolton from Noosa who enjoyed a 15.8 per cent margin against the LNP in the last election – and two Greens members Amy McMahon and Michael Berkman, the Members for South Brisbane and Maiwar.

Following successive positive results in the Federal and local government elections the Greens will be heavily targeting inner city and the river bound seats of Brisbane. These include the seat of McConnel held by current Minister for State Development Grace Grace and the ALP held seats of Cooper, Miller and Greenslopes. 

Key Issues / State of Play

North Queensland is the direction of travel for both major parties over the next few weeks with the Premier and Treasurer Cameron Dick kicking off the official ALP campaign in Cairns over the weekend and returning to Townsville Tuesday. Similarly, the LNP leadership team kicked off the week on Turtle Island off the coast of Cairns. 

Recent announcements include:  

• Townsville Mayor given show cause – As a final act, Local Government Minister Meaghan Scanlon sent a letter to controversial Townsville Mayor Troy Thompson outlining the government’s intention to suspend the mayor for 12 months.
• Early intervention programs – The ALP spruiked its record on early intervention in youth offending outlining an investment of $550 million to tackle the complex causes of youth crime through local community based Crime Action Grants. 
• Telehealth mental health service – The ALP announced $11 million over four years to establish a telehealth service to provide mental health support and therapeutic counselling care for women under Women’s Health and Equality Queensland. 
• State owned bank – The Queensland Greens have called for a state owned public bank that would offer interest rates 1.5 per cent below the Big 4 banks for owner-occupier mortgages. 
•  Adult Crime Adult Time – As part of the Opposition’s hard on crime approach, youth offenders will be judged on every police caution, restorative justice agreement and breach of supervised release order. Under the LNP’s laws, youth offenders’ criminal history will also carry over into adulthood.
• End of payroll Tax for GPs – The Opposition have announced they will remove payroll tax for General Practitioners in Queensland, as one of their first acts of Government. 
• Youth Justice Schools – The Opposition has announced the development of two specialist schools to educate high risk offenders. These schools will provide 12+ hours of daily supervision 5 days a week, with one facility to be located in North Queensland and the other to be placed in the South East Corner.

Polls, Indicators, and Commentary

The most recent AFR-Freshwater polling revealed[paywall] the LNP now leads the Labor Government 56-44 on a two-party preferred basis. Crisafulli leads Miles as preferred Premier 46 per cent to 38 per cent – we’ve seen Miles’ approval rating fluctuate slightly, compared to Crisafulli’s which has remained steady with slight increases this month. 

Newspoll polling released[paywall] last weekend showed the LNP holds a two-party lead of 55-45, with primary votes remaining steady. Opposition Leader David Crisafulli’s approval rating was up two points to 49 per cent, in line with the Freshwater poll.  

Looking Ahead

Thursday evening will see Premier Steven Miles and Opposition Leader David Crisafulli go head-to-head in the first leaders’ debate, televised on the 9 Network.

It’s expected that Premier Miles will put significant pressure on David Crisafulli and seek to highlight his lack of public policy announcements to date. In contrast David Crisafulli is likely to play heavily on the Labor Government’s record.

Early voting is available from 14–25 October in most electorates. 

This is the first of our Queensland Election 2024 series, featuring analysis of campaign activities, policy announcements, polling and other political developments. For more information about the Election, or to enquire about our public affairs and government relations services, please contact our Brisbane office on +61 2 7192 1500 or at [email protected]