October 23, 2024
Queensland Election 2024: Campaign Insights & Analysis

It’s the final countdown, with just three days to the ballot box in Queensland and the race has tightened significantly with the latest polls revealing gains for Labor in the final push to the finish (full polling details below). 

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli formally launched the state election campaign on Sunday, in a modest affair held in the city of Ipswich on Brisbane’s South. The choice to launch the campaign in the traditional working-class Labor heartland of Ipswich (held by Labor on a 16.5 per cent margin) was not missed by the media who saw the location as a demonstration of the LNP’s confidence. Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was notably not in attendance, having made a single appearance with Crisafulli earlier in the campaign. 

As part of the launch, Crisafulli maintained his focus on crime with a number of victims of crime attending, including a speech by the daughter of 70-year-old stabbing victim Vyleen White. The day’s overarching theme was ‘A Fresh Start for Queensland.’ Crisafulli continued through the week, hammering home the Adult Crime Adult Time pledge through the story of a Queenslander who had been touched by crime at each of his stops. 

In the red camp, Premier Steven Miles brought out the big guns for the media, literally, posing for a profile in the Courier Mail’s QWeekend[paywall] while lifting weights. The gun show didn’t stop there; Labor’s social media networks were in overdrive, sharing a video of the aspiring returning Premier bench pressing 100kg alongside local Brisbane influencers. The ALP this week continued to pressure the Opposition on their lack of costings to date, flagging the potential return of Newman-era cuts to healthcare workers by the LNP to pay for their plans. Any suggested cuts were refuted by the LNP who are expected to release their full costings tomorrow. Queenslanders were also given their first glimpse of what a state government-funded lunch program[paywall] would look like if re-elected. 

The final week of the campaign featured the third and final leaders’ debate, hosted by Sky News on Tuesday evening. The leaders were asked questions on women’s reproductive rights, crime, donations to political parties from developers, domestic violence-related policies, transport, the Olympics, health and even daylight saving.

The network reported that attendees put Miles ahead of Crisafulli at 39 and 35 per cent, respectively, with 26 per cent of viewers still undecided.

Premier Miles was in Hervey Bay today before travelling to Rockhampton tonight, while Mr Crisafulli continued campaigning in the south-east corner.



Key Issues / State of Play

Abortion debate continues

While Crisafulli has made his best effort to stick to his five ‘right priorities’ throughout the campaign, women’s reproductive rights remained central to any media scrum questions put to the Opposition, in the last week. This a wedge issue that the ALP hasn’t hesitated to campaign on, painting the alternative leader as unclear in his stance on the matter, should the Katter’s come through with their promise made on October 8 to introduce a bill to reverse Queensland’s existing abortion laws. 

Frustratingly for the LNP, on Tuesday, the leader of the Katter’s Australian Party, Robbie Katter shifted on his earlier position that had sparked the drama, telling the Courier Mail[paywall] only ‘a Bill mandating care for a baby born alive would be introduced to parliament’.

Katter later that afternoon told the ABC he hadn’t ruled out a repeal bill but would guarantee the reintroduction of his Termination of Pregnancy (Live Births) Amendment Bill 2024 which failed earlier this year. 

Crisafulli has continued to vow that there would be no changes to the laws and answered ‘yes’ when asked if he supported the women’s right to choose in the final debate. 

The debate on the issue is widely speculated to be behind the late shift in polling towards Labor. 

Strengthening Queensland Communities 

This week Labor committed to invest $53 million in strengthening social cohesion in Queensland communities under an ‘Inclusive Communities Infrastructure Fund’ which will deliver grants to help multicultural organisations build and upgrade facilities, put on community events and deliver support programs. A total of 24 community hubs will be supported in Brisbane, Ipswich, Logan, Rockhampton, Toowoomba and Townsville, to connect individuals with settlement services.

Free health checks for kindy kids 

The LNP have confirmed they will provide $27.5 million in funding to provide free vision, hearing and speech development checks for every child in their kindy year. The program is being offered to help identify health and developmental issues before kids’ learning falls behind.

Free disability permits 

Disability parking permits will be free under an LNP State Government according to the Opposition announcement this week. The announcement was made by Shadow Minister for Cost of Living Deb Frecklington as part of a cost of living pressure play. 

Daylight saving

During the final Sky News Debate, both leaders confirmed that neither had plans to shift the date to daylight saving.



Polls, Indicators, and Commentary

The latest polling to come out of Queensland in the final week of the State election has revealed increased support for Steven Miles and an ALP Government. While this may not be enough to prevent a change of government, it indicates a slimmer majority than first expected. 

The latest two polls, YouGov published by the Courier Mail and Resolve published by the Brisbane Times show Labor’s primary vote has recovered almost 5-10 per cent. 

This has not however translated to a significant decrease in support for the LNP, who dropped by only 3-4 per cent. The results of the latest polls translate to an estimated 6 per cent swing, which would result in a 1-3 seat majority for the LNP. 
 
Notably both the polls show Miles and Crisafulli neck and neck for preferred premier:

  • Resolve – Crisafulli 39 per cent, Miles 37 per cent, uncommitted 25 per cent.
  • YouGov – Crisafulli 37 per cent, Miles 36 per cent, uncommitted 27 per cent.

The shift however may be too little too late for Labor with an estimated 19 per cent of Queenslanders having already voted. It is worth noting that Labor’s primary vote sat at 26.7 per cent in 2012 and the LNP at 49.7 per cent during the historical wipeout win for the Campbell Newman LNP government.



Looking Ahead

Election day is this Saturday 26 October. Polling places will be open on election day from 8am to 6pm.

GRACosway will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results directly to clients. Please let us know if you are interested.

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