October 9, 2024
Queensland Election 2024: Campaign Insights & Analysis

Much like their stance on 50 cent fares, there was barely any breathing room between the leaders during the campaign this week with both Crisafulli and Miles travelling almost in tandem to the state’s most marginal regions. From North Queensland to Rockhampton and then further south to the outer suburbs of Brisbane, there were many instances where both sides came close to a face-to-face meeting. With both leaders visiting the seats of Rockhampton (ALP held 8.6 per cent margin), Keppel (ALP held 5.6 per cent margin), Redcliffe (ALP held 6.1 per cent) and the Redlands (ALP held 3.9 per cent margin) this week. 

It wasn’t until Thursday that the leaders finally met in person at the Channel 9 Leaders’ Debate. After an hour of what may only be described as a messy discussion, the panel of experts confirmed David Crisafulli the victor. Crisafulli won out with his self-described pitch for ‘hope over fear’ this election. 

The member for Broadwater was also pushed to back in his view that crime would be addressed under an LNP government, confirming that he would resign as premier if victims of crime numbers did not go down. 


“If there aren’t fewer victims, you won’t be seeing me,” – David Crisafulli. 


“So will you stand down?” – reporter. 


“Yes.” 


Notably, however, this was seen as a narrow win. Miles struck a number of blows against the opposition’s limited policy announcements, working hard to cast doubt over their proposed plans for the state. This resonated with a selection of voters questioned by the Courier Mail[paywall] , who named Miles the victor. 

This week’s campaign kicked off again, much like the last after the long weekend, with the Opposition leader returning to Cairns for a number of local sports infrastructure announcements. 

The Premier stopped a few hundred kilometres south kicking off the week in Queensland’s most marginal seat of Bundaberg, won by the ALP’s Tom Smith on nine votes in the last election. He was also spotted over the weekend in the seat of Gaven, on the Gold Coast to support the region’s only ALP member, the current Housing, Local Government and Planning Minister Meaghan Scanlon (margin of 7.6 per cent) who is currently facing off against TV personality Bianca Stone.   




Political Landscape

Energy and cost of living remained the key targets for the Labor Queensland team this week with the launch of the Government’s Cheaper Energy Plan (see below for details). However, the focus soon turned to the Government’s health record following a number of major health announcements from the LNP (see below). In response, Labor announced the extension of its $40,000 GP incentive to 2030, which would be provided to doctors who undertake GP training in QLD.

For the Opposition, health ruled this week with the launch of the LNP’s three-phase $500 million Health Services plan (see below for details) and the usual accompaniment of law and order policy. Central to this was the proposed new pilot of a Domestic Violence Offender Tracker program (details below) which was launched with the rare campaign appearance of Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. 

The recent success of the Brisbane Lions in the AFL and the coming cricket season has also flagged further discussion on the future of the Gabba and Queensland’s Olympic legacy come 2032. While the Premier held his line on the proposed infrastructure for the games – Labor opting for a refurb of the Queensland Sports and Athletics Centre, the Opposition has provided some further detail. During a press conference, David Crisafulli left the door open to a potential rebuild, suggesting that the Gabba may be “part of the mix” in the 100-day independent Olympic review he committed to earlier this year.

Candidate voting history on termination of pregnancy has again become a focus of the political discussion this week, with the Katter’s Australia Party confirming they will introduce a private member’s bill to repeal abortion laws in the next term of Queensland Parliament. Although the Opposition leader had ruled out any changes to termination laws and the discrimination of abortion (first passed in 2018) under his government, the matter is likely to remain a focus of discussion now the minor party has brought the issue to the forefront with some existing LNP backbenchers reportedly confirming they would be supportive of change.  




Key Issues / State of Play

Labor Cheaper Energy Plan 

While on a visit to the Stanwell Power Station, the Premier committed to the creation of an additional publicly owned energy retailer that will operate statewide as part of the ‘Cheaper Energy Plan’ in order to keep prices down. This retailer will compete against Government owned Ergon Energy in regional Queensland. The program will be funded through Energy Queensland’s existing budget. In addition to the retailer Premier Steven Miles has committed to an ‘Energy Price Guarantee’. This commitment is to ensure Queensland households will always have the cheapest power prices out of all mainland states in the market if re-elected. Under the plan, Queensland homeowners would not pay higher than the national average default market offer (DMO). This would be achieved through the proposed new retailer’s pricing or via rebates. 

Labor Social Housing Commitment 

Housing Minister Meaghan Scanlon continues to spruik Labor’s ‘Homes for Queensland’ plan, approving new social homes in Wynnum, Nerang, Southport, Arundel and Robina – all just before caretaker mode kicked in. Queensland’s social housing waitlist sits at 45,987 and continues to grow. The Premier and Housing Minister both refrained from guaranteeing that its plan will result in fewer people joining the waitlist – only that it will create more dwellings. Labor previously committed to building 53,500 more social homes by 2046. 

Labor Better Boating, Camping and Fishing

Over the long weekend, Premier Steven Miles announced additional funding to aid weekend recreational activities. Dubbed the ‘Better Boating, Camping and Fishing Plan’ the program focuses on cost of living and will include free annual passes to fish in dams, camping and boating facilities upgrades, additional fingerling re-stocking, and a new Net Free Zone Fund to establish new net free fishing zones in Moreton Bay. The $8 million in free annual fishing passes will be available for Paradise Dam, Enoggera Reservoir and Mt Morgan No. 7 Dam. 

LNP Academy of Health 

The LNP committed $95 million to build a new ‘Queensland Academy for Health Sciences’ that would provide a pipeline for local students to remain in the region to complete all levels of study for a medical science or allied health degree in conjunction with CQUniversity. The school will be the fourth selective entry public high school, joining another health sciences school on the Gold Coast, along with the Queensland Academy for Science Mathematics and Technology, and Queensland Academies Creative Industries in Brisbane. 

LNP DV tracker plan 

The LNP also announced additional measures to combat domestic violence perpetrators, including three ‘Hope Hubs’ – recovery centres within shopping precincts that offer services to victims in a private setting. Additionally, the party will set up a GPS tracker pilot program for 500 high-risk DV offenders on Domestic Violence Orders. The ankle bracelet program will monitor a perpetrator’s location and sound an alarm if the offender gets close to where the victim lives or works. The plan has been criticised for being an ineffective preventative measure, but the LNP had the support of the Women’s Legal Service for the announcement. 

LNP Health Plan 

The Queensland LNP released its healthcare plan, entitled the Easier Access to Health Services Plan, which consists of three phases, including: diagnose; treat; and cure, which will be supported through additional funding of $590.1 million across the forward estimates. The plan includes a commitment to a system-wide health workforce plan, aimed at identifying existing gaps in primary care and addressing the future needs of the health system.

Additionally, the LNP committed to appointing frontline staff to the Board of Health and Hospital Services and 34,200 extra clinicians by 2032 – which it will attempt to achieve through a reduction in attrition. In the healthcare plan, the LNP has committed to a number of initiatives across the Queensland Government’s existing investment pipeline.

LNP Regional Reset Program 

More recently, the ‘Regional Reset’ program was announced in Cairns, which will empower community organisations to run voluntary, residential “reset” programs for children aged 10-15 at risk of falling into the criminal justice system. The $50 million program would be available in key areas of the state including Wide Bay, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Ipswich, Gold Coast, Logan, and far north Queensland regions and include ports, adventure, skills, cultural or service activities for vulnerable children, including the siblings of convicted youth offenders. 

New Katter Kandidates 

The Katter’s launched Navy Veteran Ben Campbell as its candidate in the seat of Barron River, north of Cairns, currently held by the ALP’s Craig Crawford on a 3.1 per cent margin. It’s the first time a Katter candidate has run for the seat, with fierce competition present in LNP candidate Bree James. One Nation and Greens candidates are also running for the seat. The Katter’s also recruited paediatric surgeon Dr Dan Carroll as the candidate for Burdekin, who will go up against the LNP’s Dale Last in the seat just south of Townsville (on a 7 per cent margin). Last year’s Katter candidate, Sam Cox, received 14.2 per cent of the vote. 




Polls, Indicators, and Commentary

No additional statewide polls have been released since the last update, however, there has been significant reporting on the future of the current Queensland Health Minister and speculated future Miles successor Shannon Fentiman, the member for Waterford on the southern end of Brisbane. Last week it was reported that an internal ALP phone poll signalled a significant swing of 13 per cent against the Minister, shifting her seat to a tight margin of just 3 per cent. 

The Australian[paywall] also reported on a DemosAU poll predicting a two-seat gain for the Greens, as victors in Minister Grace Grace’s McConnel electorate and backbencher Joe Kelly’s seat of Greenslopes.  




Looking Ahead

After repeated questions from the press, Opposition Leader David Crisafulli confirmed to the Courier Mail this week that the LNP will not release its costings or tax policy before Monday, 14 October.

Pre-polling booths are open from 14–25 October in most electorates.




This is the second of our Queensland Election 2024 newsletter series, featuring analysis of campaign activities, policy announcements, polling and other political developments. For more information about the Election, or to enquire about our public affairs and government relations services, please contact our Brisbane office on +61 2 7192 1500 or at [email protected]


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