June 25, 2025
QLD Budget Insights 2025-26

A budget for growth and repair

The first Budget of the Crisafulli LNP Government was handed down by Treasurer David Janetzki on Tuesday afternoon. After the mid–year financial review in January revealed figures “dire” enough for S&P Global to downgrade Queensland’s outlook from stable to negative, the state’s credit rating remains at AA+. 

Total state debt is now forecast to reach $205.7 billion at the end of the forward estimates in 2028-29, lower than the previous Miles Labor Government. The operating deficit forecast for 2025-26 is $8.6 billion, with Janetzki claiming consistent budget improvements will reduce the operating deficit to $1.1 billion in 2028-29. 

The LNP are still the new kids in town, battling Labor-constructed fiscal policy like declining coal royalties and GST redistribution, which the Treasurer reported “punched a hole in revenue forecasts”, stripping $5 billion from revenue over the next three years. 

However, the Treasurer reiterated that Queensland is “open for business” forecasting gross state product growth of 2.75 per cent, and real wages forecast to grow 3.5 per cent this coming year. 

The centrepiece of the Treasurer and Minister for Home Ownership’s first budget is the Boost to Buy program. The home ownership scheme will see government invest up to 30 per cent equity in new builds and 25 per cent in existing homes, up to a home value of $1 million. It is open to households earning up to $225,000. The government also extends the boosted $30,000 first home owner grant for 12 months in an effort to increase home ownership. 

Furthermore, the Residential Activation Fund, which was set up after the October election, will be doubled to $1 billion. The Fund is designed to break down barriers for infill and greenfield developments and supports local councils and developers to fast-track critical infrastructure works to get land ready for new homes. The funds will be allocated to applicants by 30 June 2026. The government reports it has already seen $1.8 billion worth of applications, equating to a potential 158,000 new homes. 

Additionally, headline cost of living relief – which the Treasurer described as “targeted, responsible and comprehensive relief to those who need it most” – includes $37.5 million for free health checks for kids in kindergarten (beginning in Townsville and expanding statewide by 2027), $100 for every primary school student from 1 January to help cover the cost of essentials, and a continuation of $200 ‘Play On!’ vouchers for kids playing sport each year. 

For 600,000 vulnerable households, the Electricity Rebate Scheme will now be indexed, saving some households $386 per year, rather than $372, a $14 difference. Many of the other measures introduced by the previous Labor Government have been discontinued. Government fees and charges will be capped at a 3.4 per cent increase for the next four years, with the 20 per cent discount on car registration now finished. 

🏥 HEALTH 

Health spending increases by 10.2 per cent to $29.4 billion for 2025-26, aimed at solidifying system capacity across the state, mainly through a target of 30,000 additional elective surgeries in the coming year. The Hospital Rescue Plan will continue, with the new Queensland Cancer Centre still funded, and the plan for new hospitals to be built in Bundaberg, Toowoomba, and Coomera to continue. 

⚡ENERGY 

The Treasurer wears many hats, including as Energy Minister, with $2.4 billion allocated in this portfolio for the existing CopperString project, a transmission line of nearly 1,000 kilometres connecting Mount Isa to Townsville. Cost blowouts have pushed the estimated project cost to $14 billion. After scrapping the Pioneer-Burdekin pumped hydro project, the Budget allocates $79 million to progress CleanCo’s Mount Rawdon and Stanwell’s Big T projects, both of which are pumped hydro initiatives, and $355 million for early works on the Borumba pumped hydro project. 

🏅OLYMPICS 

In addition to the $3.8 billion provisioned for the venues program of work, the government has increased funding for the Games Independent Infrastructure and Coordination Authority (GIICA). GIICA will receive $308.5 million in funding from 2025–26 to 2028–29. $847 million has been allocated to fund the decisions to proceed with Sunshine Coast Stadium, Sunshine Coast Mountain Bike Centre, Moreton Bay Indoor Sports Centre, Barlow Park Stadium, and Logan Indoor Sports Centre projects. The joint agreement with the Federal Government was confirmed, seeing cumulative funding of $7.1 billion allocated for games venues, including the new 63,000-seat stadium at Victoria Park, a new National Aquatic Centre in Spring Hill, mountain biking on the Sunshine Coast, archery facilities for Maryborough and the upgraded Toowoomba Equestrian Centre. 

🌴TOURISM 

$446 million over four years has been allocated to fund the Government’s Destination 2045: Delivering Queensland’s Tourism Future plan, which will target ecotourism experiences across the state, fund diverse aviation attractions, and new product development to take advantage of and boost tourist numbers pre and post-Olympics. 

🚗TRANSPORT 

As promised at the election, the Bruce Highway will see major works over the coming years, with $1.2 billion over the forward estimates allocated to fund the Bruce Highway Targeted Safety Program, which will deliver wide centre line treatments, intersection upgrades, improved rest areas, and overtaking lanes on priority sections of the 1,600 kilometre highway. 

Speaking in Question Time, Transport Minister Brent Mickelberg confirmed the Cross River Rail Project, expected to be completed in 2029, would see sections of the underground service named “the Elizabeth Line” in a nod to London’s 2022 rail line named in honour of the late Queen Elizabeth II. 

50 cent fares will continue. 

📅 LOOKING AHEAD 

Opposition Leader Steven Miles will deliver his Budget Reply speech on Thursday, 25 June, with Budget Estimates Committee Hearings to follow from the week of 29 July.

    Further reading

    📚 Budget Papers 

    📄 Budget Speech[PDF] 

    📘 Budget Overview[PDF]

      Key Parameters

      📉 Net debt is forecast as $41.8 billion for 2025–26 

      📊 Deficit of $8.6 billion expected in 2025–26, but reducing to $1.1 billion by 2028–29 

      👷 Unemployment rate at 4 per cent 

      📈 Gross State Product forecast to grow to 2.75 per cent in 2025–26, up from 2.5 per cent in 2024–25 

      🏗️ Infrastructure investment of $116.8 billion over four years, including transport and Olympics projects

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