Federal Election 2022 Outcome
Sunday, 22 May 2022
Key points
- Labor will return to government for the first time since 2013.
- Anthony Albanese will be sworn in as the 31st Prime Minister.
- Scott Morrison has resigned as leader of the Liberal Party but will remain in Parliament.
- Major swing towards independents and minor parties, which saw at least six ‘teal’ independents take key seats from the Liberal Party and several Greens members take seats from Labor.
The Australian Labor Party has defeated the incumbent Liberal-National Coalition to form government. On current estimates, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) says Labor has secured 74 seats to the Coalition’s 52, with almost 67 per cent of votes counted. Labor is expected to pick up the necessary seats required to form a majority government, with 76 seats needed. In a massive swing to independents and minor parties, 12 crossbenchers have secured seats in the 151-seat House of Representatives, while a further 13 seats remain in doubt. The 47th Parliament will now feature the largest House of Representatives crossbench in the nation’s modern history.
Shortly before midnight, Labor leader Anthony Albanese claimed victory outlining that “tonight the Australian people have voted for change”. Mr Albanese thanked voters for the “extraordinary honour” of becoming Australia’s 31st Prime Minister. During his speech, Mr Albanese vowed to “end the climate wars” and become a “renewable energy superpower”, also outlining that his government would work to bring Australians together.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison conceded defeat shortly after 10.30pm on Saturday, and also announced that he would step down as Liberal leader but stay in Parliament. Mr Morrison told party faithful that he takes responsibility for both the wins and losses as he thanked his colleagues for their support. He said the low primary vote support for both major parties reflected the “upheaval over these past few years”.
In a devastating loss for several Liberals, a number of the high-profile Climate 200-backed ‘teal’ independents claimed victory in some previously safe Liberal seats. Teal independents retained three seats, including Andrew Wilkie in Clark, Helen Haines in Indi and Zali Steggall in Warringah, and gained six more, including Allegra Spender who defeated Liberal MP Dave Sharma in Wentworth and Dr Sophie Scamps who claimed victory in Mackellar over Liberal MP Jason Falinski.
Other teal independent victories included Kylea Tink in North Sydney who also defeated incumbent Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman, Kate Chaney who took Curtin in Western Australia from Liberal MP Celia Hammond, and former journalist Zoe Daniel who defeated Liberal MP Tim Wilson in Goldstein. Notably, Dr Monique Ryan is expected to unseat Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in the inner-Melbourne seat of Kooyong. While Mr Frydenberg noted that it would be unlikely he would retain the seat, he said he was waiting for the postal votes to be counted before he conceded the seat.
Both major parties saw a decrease in their primary votes, with Labor’s dropping to 32.8 per cent, the party’s lowest primary vote in more than 100 years. Despite Labor suffering a fall in its primary vote, it made enough gains with preferences from the Greens and others to pick up seats. The Coalition’s primary vote was 35.5 per cent, down 6 per cent. Meanwhile, the Greens were one of the biggest winners of the night after increasing their primary vote to 12 per cent, up 1.6 per cent.
In a major upset for the Labor Party, frontbencher and former NSW premier Kristina Keneally is expected to lose the formerly safe seat of Fowler to independent Dai Le. Shadow Cabinet Minister Terri Butler is also expected to lose her south Brisbane seat of Griffith to Greens candidate Max Chandler-Mather. However, Labor appears on track to gain Bennelong and will also take Reid in Sydney, Chisholm in Melbourne, Boothby in Adelaide and Swan in Perth.
In a devastating result for the Liberal Party, the Election saw the Liberals lose previously safe seats to Labor, including Reid, Higgins, Robertson, Swan, Pearce, Hasluck and Tangney. In Queensland, the two previously safe Liberal seats of Brisbane and Ryan will likely to be lost to the Greens. The Coalition is also concerned about close races Bennelong, Menzies, Moore and Deakin. In a particularly bad result for the Liberal Party, with at least a 12 per cent swing, a number of seats in Western Australia were lost to Labor and independents. Despite Mr Morrison campaigning heavily across the state, at least four Liberal seats in Western Australia are likely to flip to Labor.
Meanwhile, despite a swing against them in a number of seats, the Nationals are expected to hold its regional seats, including Nicholls in regional Victoria, Flynn in central Queensland and Page in northern NSW, which were all considered to be under threat.
What’s next
It is expected the results will be finalised in the coming days, however while the AEC began counting as soon as polls shut on the east coast at 6pm yesterday, it would only begin counting the over 2.7 million postal votes it has received from Sunday afternoon.
Anthony Albanese is expected to be sworn in as the 31st Prime Minister on Monday morning along with his leadership team, including Shadow Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong, ahead of attending the Quad leaders’ summit in Tokyo early next week. The leadership team also includes Deputy Labor leader Richard Marles, Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Shadow Finance Minister Katy Gallagher.
The Liberal Party will vote on a new leader at the next party room meeting. After Mr Frydenberg’s expected loss in his seat of Kooyong, in the likely scenario that Peter Dutton holds his Queensland seat of Dickson, it is expected that he will put his hand up for the Liberal leadership.
Contact GRACosway
For more information about the Federal Election outcome, or to enquire about our multi-partisan public affairs and government relations services, please contact a senior member of our team:
Richard King
Managing Partner – Public Affairs
M: +61 407 766 633
E: [email protected]
Andrew Cox
Partner
M: +61 499 599 008
E: [email protected]
Isuru Neelagama
Director
M: +61 451 005 661
E: [email protected]