South Australian State Election: Key Predictions

March 19, 2026

SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION STATE OF PLAY

Election Countdown

South Australia heads to the polls tomorrow (Saturday 21 March) in the first significant poll since last year’s Federal Election. Opinion polls have consistently shown that Labor is well ahead and Peter Malinauskas is expected to be returned to government, possibly with an expanded majority. In the 47-seat House of Assembly, Labor holds 29 seats, with the Liberal Party holding 13 and four held by crossbench MPs, including three former Liberal MPs who have since left the party. One seat remains vacant.

The Major Party Leaders

Peter Malinauskas has served as Premier of South Australia since 2022 and Leader of the Labor Party in South Australia since 2018. Originally hailing from the retail workers union, his policy focus includes a strong sense towards workers’ rights, as well as education, climate change, law and order, mental health services, infrastructure to support population growth, the re-establishment of the Adelaide 500 motorsport event, and expansion of hospital bed capacity.

Ashton Hurn is the Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the South Australian Liberal Party. She became Liberal Leader in December 2025, the party’s third leader this parliamentary term following Vincent Tarzia’s departure just 100 days out from the election. Hurn is the Member for Schubert, a seat north of Adelaide encompassing much of the Barossa Valley. She is in her mid-30s, a first-term parliamentarian, and only the second woman to lead the South Australian Liberal Party. Prior to her elevation, she was regarded as a capable opposition health spokesperson. Her appointment signals an attempt to refresh the Liberal Party’s public profile. However, her limited time in leadership and relative parliamentary inexperience have presented constraints as she campaigned statewide.

Both major parties have conducted presidential-style campaigns centred on their respective leaders. Labor has leveraged Malinauskas’s strong personal brand within South Australia. Recent polling indicates a substantial gap in voter preference between the two leaders, with Malinauskas commanding significantly stronger support across the electorate.

The Independents and One Nation

South Australia has consistently demonstrated a capacity for significant third-party parliamentary representation, evident in the rise of the Nick Xenophon Team (2018), the Democrats (1980s–90s), and the Liberal and Country League (1970s). Following the Nick Xenophon Team collapse, support for minor parties other than the Greens fragmented across Family First, UAP, Animal Justice, and One Nation. Ahead of the 2026 election, this dispersed vote appears to be consolidating around One Nation, which is drawing support from the Liberal Party’s right, whilst Labor gains ground among moderate Liberal voters.

One Nation’s electoral challenge

One Nation is currently polling at record levels, and has boosted its ranks nationally with some high profile conservative candidates such as Barnaby Joyce and Cory Bernardi in South Australia. While it remains to be seen whether One Nation’s support will translate into electoral success, at the very least, a strong performance in South Australia’s upper house is expected.

The community independent factor

Gaining less media attention is the strengthening position of community independents, particularly in regional areas. Four independents currently sit in the Lower House, and candidates in regional seats, including Finniss, Eyre Peninsula, and Mount Gambier, are positioned competitively and could further erode Liberal representation. This reflects the national trend toward community-backed ‘teal’ independents in Liberal-held seats and regional areas.

Campaign Policy Issues

The Labor Party has focused their campaign on the following pillars:

Continuity: Build on what has been working for the past four years.
Parochialism: A growing sense of state pride and opportunity, particularly regarding AUKUS, local manufacturing, and major events.
Marginal Seat Campaign: Targeted announcements in key seats on infrastructure, health, and education.
Home-ownership: Highlighting the abolition of stamp duty for first-home buyers (on new builds) and the substantial increase in public housing supply.
Presidential Campaign: Leveraging Peter Malinauskas’ exceptionally high personal approval.

The Liberal party has focused their campaign on:

A Different Approach: Attempting to create a distinction between Malinauskas and Ashton.
Home-ownership: Promoting stamp duty concession for downsizers (over 55s) to encourage older South Australians to move into smaller homes.
Regional Development: Leveraging Hurn’s regional roots (the Barossa Valley), policies seek to reverse the drift of regional voters toward One Nation and Independents.
Spin vs. Wins: An attempt to paint Labor as more focused on spin than outcome.

Polling

Polling has consistently shown Labor in a position of dominance with Liberal popularity floundering. The latest Newspoll shows just 14 per cent of voters surveyed intend to vote Liberal at next month’s state election, behind One Nation on 24 per cent, and Labor on 44 per cent. Additionally, a YouGov poll published also puts the Liberal Party in third place, with 20 per cent primary support, behind One Nation on 22 per cent, and Labor on 37 per cent.

Finally, a recent Fox & Hedgehog Poll shows Labor well ahead with a 61–39 lead over the Liberals on a two party referred basis. On primary vote, Labor sits at 40 per cent, One Nation at 20 per cent, and the Liberals at 19 per cent. When modelled as a three-way contest, Labor records 54 per cent, compared with 25 per cent for One Nation and 21 per cent for the Liberals. In a direct Labor–One Nation matchup, Labor’s advantage widens further to 63–37.

Government Record & Campaign Controversies

Premier Malinauskas has remained largely free of personal controversy. His government, however, has faced sustained criticism over ambulance ramping (delay in transferring patients from ambulances to emergency departments) and broader health system performance, housing affordability pressures, management of the algal bloom incident, and allegations of political interference with Adelaide Writers’ Week. These issues have provided regular criticism points but have not materially damaged Labor’s electoral standing.

The Liberal Party has weathered multiple controversies during the parliamentary term. Former Leader David Speirs resigned following charges related to drug possession. More recently, the party disendorsed candidate Carston Woodhouse (Wright) after offensive remarks he had made regarding feminism, Islam, and same-sex marriage came to light. Despite these incidents, the Liberal campaign itself has remained relatively controversy-free in recent months.

One Nation Leader and former Federal Senator Cory Bernadi has attracted scrutiny over past remarks linking same-sex marriage to the social acceptance of bestiality, made some 14 years ago. While Bernadi stated he does not regret the position, he acknowledged it would have been better to avoid commentary on the matter.

Election Outlook

The Labor Party, led by Premier Peter Malinauskas, is certain to win the 2026 election comfortably with an increased majority, barring a late disaster. The Liberal Party, despite its leadership change, is now focused on retaining sufficient seats to maintain a credible opposition. However, the party faces a dual challenge: the resurgence of independent candidates in regional areas and One Nation’s consolidation of third-party support. Should One Nation achieve significant representation, this could also expose Labor-held seats in outer metropolitan areas.