The South Australian Labor Party – led by Premier Peter Malinauskas – has secured a second term of government following an emphatic landslide victory. At the time of writing, Labor has secured 32 of the 47 House of Assembly seats, more than enough to form a majority government. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party – led by Ashton Hurn – has so far secured just four seats, down from the 16 it won at the 2022 state election. Additionally, One Nation has thus far won one seat in the House of Assembly and is likely to win more, while also securing at least two seats in the Legislative Council, with a possible third. At the time of writing, nine seats remain in doubt, including MacKillop, Narungga, Hammond, Finniss, Kavel, Morphett, Stuart, Heysen, and Light. However, this list may grow during the week as declaration, postal, and pre-poll votes are counted.

In the lead-up to the election, three things were clear: Peter Malinauskas would be returned as Premier of the State, the Liberal Party faced a challenging election, and One Nation would cause significant primary vote disruption. All have come about. The Premier was returned with an increased majority. However, despite predictions that the Liberal Party would win as few as two seats, it currently holds as many as four and may potentially win a few more depending on preference flows. While the wipe out of the Liberals in metro Adelaide was not complete, it did lose Unley, Colton, Morialta, and former Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia’s seat of Hartley, all to Labor.

One Nation has won the seat of Ngadjuri, located in the rural mid-north and outer Gawler, from the Liberal’s Penny Pratt. Additionally, One Nation may win the seat of Hammond from the Liberal Party, and is ahead in MacKillop and Narungga. The success of One Nation’s campaign has been attributed to its strategic targeting of seats that were demographically consistent with its voter base. One Nation also placed resources into Labor-held metropolitan and regional seats, rather than competing in inner metropolitan seats. This saw One Nation run up the vote in the high twenties, cannibalising the Liberal vote and taking significant chunks off Labor’s primary.

Complicating the issue were legislative changes made by the Malinauskas Government, which had the effect of reducing voter awareness of the election by banning corflutes, donations, spending reforms, and making it more straightforward to vote early. This resulted in significant swings against major parties in the early count, which were corrected when prepoll votes were counted on the night.

What does this mean?

The Malinauskas Government will look to move on quickly from the election, particularly as it relates to the One Nation surge in traditional Labor seats. A new cabinet will likely be announced in the coming days, with a significant reshuffle anticipated. The government will look to implement policies as a matter of urgency, with South Australian Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis stating the focus would be on ‘throwing the kitchen sink at housing affordability’.

Both parties will have to contend with losing significant portions of their vote to One Nation in traditionally safe seats. It appears that the Labor Party did not recognise the threat One Nation posed until late in the campaign. Whereas the Liberal Party needs to rebuild both in the centre and on the right, a more difficult proposition. To some extent this should be seen as a shot across the bow for both major parties. Both parties have time to rebuild their brands. However, if the voter dissatisfaction that has been expressed this weekend is not met, One Nation will be back, and the warning will have been issued.