Today, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the 2025 Federal Election will be held on Saturday, 3 May.
Arriving at Government House this morning, the Prime Minister formally requested the Governor-General, Her Excellency Sam Mostyn, dissolve Parliament, triggering the official election period.
This marks the start of a closely contested campaign as Australians prepare to decide the next government.
Polling
✅ Labor and the Coalition are tied: Recent Newspoll data shows the Coalition edging Labor 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis.
📊 Primary vote shifts: The Coalition are at 39 per cent while Labor have fallen to 32 per cent. The Greens remain steady at 12 per cent.
🗳️ Preferred PM: Anthony Albanese leads 47-38 over Peter Dutton.
Major campaign themes
Cost of living: the defining issue
With Australians feeling the pinch across mortgages, groceries, and everyday essentials, cost of living has emerged as the defining issue of the 2025 election.
Both major parties are positioning themselves as better economic managers, knowing that household budgets, and hip-pocket relief, will be front of mind for voters.
Key economic indicators shaping the debate include:
Inflation and the economy: With household budgets under sustained pressure, both major parties are unveiling competing plans to ease financial strain and reassure voters of their economic credentials. From tax cuts and fuel excise relief to cheaper healthcare and medicines, the focus is on short-term relief paired with long-term economic stability.
Health: Healthcare remains a strength for Labor, which has leaned into its $8.5 billion expansion of bulk billing. In a sign the Coalition is keen to neutralise the issue and avoid another “Mediscare” moment, it has already backed the policy while adding an additional $500 million to expand mental health services.
Housing: With housing affordability and availability still top of mind, both parties are pitching solutions. Labor is pushing expanded eligibility and increased price caps under its Help to Buy Scheme. Meanwhile, the Coalition is backing a policy that would allow first-home buyers to access their superannuation for a deposit.
Energy: The 2025 election will help shape the long-term future of Australia’s energy system. Voters are being asked to choose between Labor’s renewables-led, gas-firmed approach and the Coalition’s push for nuclear energy and expanded gas projects. The divide reflects broader contrasts in climate policy, energy reliability, and economic transition planning.
Law and order: Traditionally a state issue, crime is now climbing up the list of national voter concerns. Peter Dutton has sought to capitalise on this, drawing on his background as a former Queensland police officer to frame the Coalition as strong on law and order, particularly in response to community concerns around youth crime and safety.
Labor’s Focus: “Building Australia’s Future”
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has kicked off the year spruiking what is expected to be Labor’s campaign slogan: “Building Australia’s Future.” It’s a clear nod to the government’s Future Made in Australia agenda, aimed at creating high-value jobs in domestic manufacturing and ensuring Australia plays a leading role in the clean energy economy.
In the lead-up to the campaign, Labor handed down its pre-election Budget with a mix of traditional Labor priorities and targeted cost of living support. Key measures include tax relief for working Australians, energy bill rebates, first home buyer assistance, infrastructure upgrades, and further investments in Medicare and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS).
Labor will argue that its approach to responsible economic management has helped steer Australia through a period of global uncertainty, avoiding recession and mass unemployment, while still delivering relief for households and investing in the nation’s long-term prosperity.
📢 “Over the last few years, the world has thrown a lot at Australia. In uncertain times, we cannot decide the challenges that we will face, but we can determine how we respond. Our government has chosen to face global challenges the Australian way – helping people under cost of living pressure while building for the future. Because of the strength and resilience that our people have shown, Australia is turning the corner.” — Anthony Albanese, Press Conference, 28 March 2025
Coaltion’s Pitch: “Let’s Get Australia Back on Track”
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton began the year campaigning in the marginal Victorian seat of Chisholm, where he launched a 44-page policy agenda titled Let’s Get Australia Back On Track: The Priorities of a Dutton Coalition Government[PDF]
The plan outlines key priorities including: law and order, a return to small government, simplifying the tax system, integrating nuclear energy into Australia’s power mix, and stronger support for small businesses.
In his Budget Reply Address, Mr Dutton pitched the election as a “sliding doors moment” for Australia. He criticised the Albanese Government for presiding over a historic collapse in living standards and presented the Coalition as focused on cost of living relief, national security, and economic repair.
Key Budget Reply Commitments:
Halve the fuel excise for 12 months, saving up to $1,500 per year for families with two cars.
$50 million for food relief charities including Foodbank, OzHarvest and SecondBite.
A suite of proposed legislation, including:
Energy Price Reduction Bill
Lower Immigration and More Homes for Australians Bill
Keeping Australians Safe Bill
Guaranteed Funding for Health, Education and Essential Services Bill
On housing, the Coalition has committed to:
$5 billion in funding for enabling infrastructure (water, power, sewerage) to unlock up to 500,000 new homes on greenfield sites
A two-year ban on foreign investors and temporary residents purchasing existing homes
A 10-year moratorium on changes to the National Construction Code
Reducing permanent migration and tightening international student intake
Mr Dutton has also leaned into law and order as a campaign theme, drawing on his policing background and promising tougher action on youth crime and community safety.
In recent weeks, he has directly challenged the Prime Minister’s leadership, accusing him of being “weak” on rising antisemitism and failing to respond decisively to growing social tensions.
📢 “This election is not just about the next five weeks. It’s about the next five years—and beyond. It’s a chance to reverse the decline, to restore confidence, and to get our country back on track.” — Peter Dutton, Budget Reply Speech, 27 March 2025
What's at stake?
The 2025 federal election will be a contest for 150 seats, following last year’s electoral redistribution, which reduced the size of the House of Representatives by one. To form a majority government, a party must secure 76 seats.
Coalition: The Path to Victory
The Coalition faces an uphill battle, needing a net gain of 21 seats to govern in its own right. Its campaign strategy focuses on reclaiming outer suburban Labor seats under economic pressure, as well as winning back teal-held electorates, including Kooyong (Monique Ryan) and Goldstein (Zoe Daniel), that were once traditional Liberal strongholds.
Labor: Holding the Line
Labor currently holds 78 seats, having added to its 2022 tally with a historic win in the Aston by-election. To maintain its majority, Labor is concentrating on defending marginal seats, particularly across Newcastle, Greater Sydney, and Greater Melbourne. The party is also focused on holding ground in South Australia and Western Australia, though recent polling and past results may offer some breathing room in these states.
The Minority Government Scenario
If neither major party secures a majority, Australia will face a hung parliament, where government is formed through negotiations with crossbench MPs, including independents and minor parties. In this scenario, the balance of power will rest with the expanded and influential crossbench, making post-election negotiations pivotal.
Spotlight on marginal seats
Throughout the campaign, GRACosway will be tracking key marginal seats where tight contests could shape the outcome of the 2025 election.
Labor’s Defence vs. The Coalition’s Push for Gains
🟥 Labor aims to protect the seats it gained in 2022, particularly in WA and NSW.
🟦 The Coalition is targeting NSW and Victoria, looking to win back lost ground.
Electoral Redistributions: Shifting Battlegrounds
🗺️ Boundary changes in NSW, Victoria, and WA have reshaped key seats:
📌 Bennelong (NSW): Shifted from a Labor seat (1 per cent margin) to notionally Liberal by just 0.04 per cent.
📌 Chisholm (VIC): The abolition of Higgins cut Labor’s margin from 6.4 per cent to 3.3 per cent.
📌 Bullwinkel (WA): A brand-new seat in Perth’s suburbs is expected to be a battleground, especially with 2022 seen as a high watermark for Labor’s WA vote.
The Teal Factor: Inner Melbourne Battlegrounds
How the Coalition’s messaging resonates in formerly safe Liberal seats like Kooyong and Goldstein, now held by teal independents Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel, will be a key storyline to watch.
What's next?
🏛️ Government in Caretaker Mode: Federal departments and agencies will now enter caretaker mode, restricting major policy decisions that could bind a future government.
📢 Campaign in Full Swing: Expect policy announcements, debates, and key events in battleground electorates over the coming weeks.